What changes can the minister make to immigration levels?

Recently, I was asked regarding the impact of the current economic downturn on the annual immigration levels of Canada.

Our immigration laws require the immigration minister to table a report with the Parliament within than 30 days after the 1st of November of each year setting out the number of newcomers that Canada took in during the previous year and the number it plans to intake in the coming year.

In according with the law, in late November 2008, our newly-appointed immigration minister Jason Kenney announced that in 2009, the country will accept between 240,000 to 265,000 new permanent residents. This exact target has been used three years in a row now and hasn’t deviated too much from the annual targets that were set over the previous decade or two. While setting this target, Kenney maintained that the number is necessary to effectively respond to the diverse skill requirements of an expanding and dynamic economy.

In his report, Kenney also hailed the accomplishments of his government when it passed Bill C-50, which presumable gave the immigration minister more flexibility in the processing and managing of applications.

Logic implies that the minister will now wish to avail his newly acquired powers and adjust his immigration plan, given that the plan was premised upon an expanding and dynamic economy, when we are actually confronted by a shrinking and underperforming one. The truth is that in terms of immigrants coming here permanently, it is nearly impossible that the actual number that will be admitted in 2009 will be far from the forecasted one. And even if it does, it would have little or no impact on the Canadian workforce.

The reason is that as a percentage of our population, 240,000 to 265,000 newcomers comprises of less than one percent of our national population. This number is even less significant when we consider people who will be leaving the country permanently during the same period.

In addition to this, the minister doesn’t really have that much wiggle room. Up to 71,000 of these future immigrants will be arriving in Canada under the family class as sponsored spouses, partners, parents, children, and grandparents. Therefore, it will be unwise for the minister to tell the Canadians that their close family members will be unable to join them in Canada this year due to deterioration in economic conditions. Another 27,200 permanent visas are reserved for protected people who are almost sure to be here. Another 10,000 immigrants will be accepted on wide range of humanitarian considerations. This will leave some 156,000 in the “economic class” of which a growing percentage is selected by the provinces and territories based on their requirements.